Markets Bet on Whether the Government Will Be Shut Down on January 31
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Prediction markets are currently indicating a 37% chance of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026. This reflects investor concerns over ongoing budget negotiations and potential economic impacts. The market, hosted on Kalshi, has seen significant activity, with 13,759 contracts traded in the last 24 hours, making it one of the platform's most active markets. The outcome will be determined by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management's announcement regarding government operations on January 31 at 10:00 AM ET.
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Key Entities
- • - Kalshi - A regulated prediction market platform where users trade on event outcomes.
- • - U.S. Office of Personnel Management - The federal agency responsible for managing the civil service of the government.
Bias Distribution
Source & Verification
Status: Confirmed
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