Deep Dive: Wave of violence erupts in Mexico following death of 'El Mencho'

From a geopolitical perspective, the death of 'El Mencho' (Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel or CJNG, one of Mexico's most powerful drug trafficking organizations) represents a pivotal shift in the balance of power within Mexico's criminal underworld. The CJNG has long been a dominant force, controlling key drug routes and expanding influence through brutal tactics. Rival cartels, such as the Sinaloa Cartel, see this as an opportunity to seize territory, leading to escalated violence. This internal power struggle underscores Mexico's entrenched issues with organized crime, where cartels function as quasi-states with their own economies and armies. As an international affairs correspondent, the cross-border implications are stark, particularly for the United States, Mexico's northern neighbor. The CJNG is a primary supplier of fentanyl and other drugs fueling the U.S. opioid crisis, with operations extending into American cities. Heightened violence could disrupt smuggling routes temporarily but often leads to surges in migration as civilians flee conflict zones. Central American countries are also affected, as cartel activities fuel human trafficking and extortion along migration paths. Globally, this instability impacts commodity prices, like avocados from Michoacán, where CJNG has deep roots, due to production halts from violence. Regionally, Mexico's cultural and historical context is crucial: the nation has battled narco-violence since the 2006 militarized 'war on drugs,' resulting in over 400,000 deaths. 'El Mencho,' from the rural highlands of Michoacán and Jalisco, embodied the evolution from small-time growers to transnational empires, leveraging family ties and local loyalties. Indigenous and rural communities, often coerced into cartel service, bear the brunt. Key actors include the Mexican government under President Claudia Sheinbaum, U.S. agencies like the DEA pushing for cooperation, and cartels vying for dominance. The outlook suggests prolonged instability unless addressed through nuanced strategies beyond militarization, such as economic development in cartel strongholds. Stakeholders range from local populations enduring terror to international partners seeking stability. The U.S. has strategic interests in curbing drug flows and migration, while China benefits indirectly from precursor chemical supplies to cartels. European nations face downstream effects via money laundering networks. This event highlights the need for multilateral approaches, as unilateral actions often exacerbate fragmentation and violence.