Deep Dive: US to present paper on gradual Hamas disarmament, mediator tells Asharq Al-Awsat

From the geopolitical analyst's lens, this development signals a potential shift in US strategy toward Hamas (the Palestinian militant group controlling Gaza since 2007), aiming for de-escalation amid ongoing Israel-Hamas tensions rooted in decades of conflict over territory and security. Washington (the US government) positioning a 'gradual disarmament' paper reflects broader interests in stabilizing the region to counter Iranian influence, as Hamas receives support from Tehran, while balancing alliances with Israel and Arab states. Key actors include the US as mediator pushing for security concessions, Hamas seeking political legitimacy, and implicit stakeholders like Israel demanding demilitarization and Egypt/Qatar facilitating talks. The international correspondent highlights cross-border ripples: Gaza's mediator role underscores Arab-American diaspora involvement in shuttle diplomacy, echoing historical US-brokered deals like the Oslo Accords. Culturally, Hamas's Islamist roots contrast with US secular diplomacy, complicating trust; strategically, disarmament could pave way for reconstruction aid, affecting migration flows and humanitarian crises in neighboring Sinai and Lebanon. Implications extend to Europe via reduced terror threats and to Gulf states via normalized Israel ties under Abraham Accords. Regionally, intelligence expertise notes Gaza's dense urban fabric and blockade history since 2007 foster militancy; Bahbah's (Bachar Bahbah, a Palestinian-American academic and peace advocate) mediation leverages cultural bridges between Arab communities and US policymakers. Saudi outlet Asharq Al-Awsat amplifying this suggests Riyadh's interest in de-radicalization to bolster anti-Iran axis. Outlook: success hinges on Hamas reciprocity, potentially unlocking ceasefires but risking internal fractures if seen as capitulation; failure perpetuates cycles of violence displacing millions.