Deep Dive: US Close to Attack on Iran with 90% Chance of Operations in Coming Weeks

From a geopolitical lens, the reported 90 percent likelihood of US active operations against Iran signals a potential escalation in longstanding US-Iran hostilities rooted in the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which overthrew the US-backed Shah and led to the hostage crisis, fundamentally altering power dynamics in the Persian Gulf. The US, as a global hegemon with strategic interests in securing oil routes through the Strait of Hormuz and countering Iran's nuclear ambitions and proxy militias like Hezbollah and the Houthis, views Iran as a primary threat to regional stability and ally Israel. Iran, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, pursues a strategy of asymmetric warfare and regional influence via the Axis of Resistance to deter US dominance and assert Shia power against Sunni rivals like Saudi Arabia. As international affairs correspondents, we note the cross-border ripple effects: any US strikes could ignite proxy battles in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, disrupting global energy supplies as Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of world oil passes, spiking prices and affecting economies from Europe to Asia. Key actors include the US under President Biden balancing domestic pressures with alliance commitments, Israel pushing for preemptive action post-October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia quietly supporting containment of Iran while pursuing normalization. Humanitarian crises would intensify, with millions in refugee flows straining Turkey, Jordan, and Europe. Regionally, Iran's theocratic regime leverages Persian cultural resilience and revolutionary ideology to rally domestic support amid economic sanctions, but faces internal dissent from protests like the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising. US operations might unify Iranians temporarily but risk bolstering hardliners. Outlook remains volatile: diplomacy via Oman or Qatar could avert war, yet Axios sourcing suggests Pentagon impatience after Iranian proxy attacks on US bases post-Gaza war. Stakeholders from China (Iran's oil buyer) to Russia (arms supplier) watch closely, potentially reshaping alliances. Nuance lies in the brinkmanship: US 'having had enough' reflects cumulative strikes on proxies, not direct war declaration, preserving off-ramps amid election-year politics. Yet, miscalculation could draw in NATO allies or spark cyber retaliation, underscoring why this matters for global security architecture.