Deep Dive: US and Israel launch joint attack on Iran; Iran fires missiles at US bases in Gulf; Trump threatens Spain over base access

From a geopolitical standpoint, the joint US-Israel attack on Iran marks a significant escalation in longstanding tensions, where Israel views Iran as an existential threat due to its nuclear ambitions and support for proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, while the US seeks to maintain dominance in the Gulf against Iranian influence. Trump's direct threat to Spain introduces a transatlantic dimension, pressuring NATO ally Spain over strategic bases at Rota naval base and Morón air base, which are critical for US power projection into the Middle East. Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC, Iran's elite military force ideologically committed to exporting the Islamic Revolution) claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz underscores its strategy to weaponize chokepoints, disrupting 20% of global oil trade. Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint since the 1980s Iran-Iraq War tanker attacks, and recent US-Iran frictions stem from the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal under Trump, leading to 'maximum pressure' sanctions. Culturally, Iran's response reflects its narrative of resistance against 'Great Satan' America and 'Zionist entity' Israel, rallying domestic support amid economic woes. Spain's refusal highlights European wariness of entanglement in US-led conflicts, balancing NATO obligations with public opposition to Middle East wars post-Iraq. Cross-border implications ripple globally: Gulf states hosting US bases like UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain face direct risks, potentially drawing in Saudi Arabia. Europe's energy security is hit by oil spikes, exacerbating inflation, while Asian importers like China and India suffer supply shocks. The Trump-Sánchez confrontation (Sánchez referring to Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez) signals fraying US-EU unity, with trade blockade threats evoking Cold War-era pressures. Looking ahead, if Iran sustains Hormuz disruptions, it could provoke a broader coalition response, but escalation risks miscalculation into full war, affecting migration flows, refugee crises, and proxy battles from Yemen to Syria. Stakeholders include Iran prioritizing regime survival, US under Trump reasserting unilateralism, Israel advancing preemption, and Spain navigating sovereignty versus alliance.