Deep Dive: UN Secretary-General Guterres Appoints New Personal Envoy to Sudan

Sudan has been embroiled in a brutal civil war since April 2023, pitting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). This conflict, rooted in power struggles following the 2019 ouster of dictator Omar al-Bashir, has displaced over 10 million people—the world's largest displacement crisis—and killed tens of thousands, exacerbating famine risks in Darfur and other regions. The UN's appointment of a new personal envoy by Guterres signals renewed diplomatic momentum, replacing previous efforts like those of Volker Türk, amid stalled ceasefire talks. From a geopolitical lens, key actors include Egypt and the UAE, with Cairo backing the SAF for Nile water security and Red Sea influence, while Abu Dhabi allegedly arms the RSF to control gold mines and expand Gulf sway in the Horn of Africa. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia also jockey for position, with Riyadh mediating IGAD talks but facing competition from Turkey and Russia, the latter deploying Wagner-linked mercenaries for gold in exchange for arms. The UN envoy's role is pivotal in navigating these proxy dynamics, where external interests prolong the war for strategic gains in migration routes, energy transit, and counterterrorism. Internationally, the crisis fuels Horn of Africa instability, driving mass migration to Europe via Libya and straining Chad and South Sudan with 2 million refugees. Humanitarian corridors are blocked, with aid groups like MSF reporting cholera outbreaks and 25 million facing acute hunger. The envoy could unlock US and EU sanctions relief if progress is made, but failure risks state collapse, empowering jihadists like al-Qaeda affiliates in Darfur. Culturally, Sudan's Arab-African divide amplifies tribal fissures, with RSF's Janjaweed legacy evoking genocide fears among non-Arab groups. The envoy must address transitional justice and federalism to rebuild trust, but without halting UAE arms flows or SAF blockades, diplomacy falters. Outlook hinges on Ramadan ceasefires evolving into inclusive talks, potentially stabilizing Sahel security for global powers.