Deep Dive: Tunisia intensifies crackdown on Ennahda party leadership in Conspiracy 2 appeal, Amnesty International reports

Tunisia's political landscape has been marked by tension since the 2011 Arab Spring uprising, which ousted longtime leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and briefly empowered Ennahda (Tunisia's main Islamist party, founded in 1981 as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood) as part of a democratic transition. Ennahda won elections in 2011 and 2014 but faced backlash amid economic woes and security threats from jihadist groups. President Kais Saied's 2021 power grab, suspending parliament and dismissing the prime minister, sidelined Ennahda-led coalitions, framing them as corrupt or conspiratorial. The 'Conspiracy 2' case, an extension of earlier charges, accuses Ennahda leaders of plotting against the state, reflecting Saied's strategy to consolidate power by targeting the opposition. Key actors include the Tunisian government under Saied, who positions himself as a bulwark against Islamist influence, and Ennahda, whose leader Rached Ghannouchi remains a symbolic figure despite imprisonment. Amnesty International (a global human rights organization monitoring political repression) critiques the crackdown as undermining judicial independence and free expression. Regionally, this aligns with North African trends where secular-leaning regimes curb Islamist parties, as seen in Egypt's crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood post-2013. Cross-border implications ripple through the Maghreb and beyond: Algeria and Egypt watch closely, fearing similar domestic unrest, while Europe frets over migration stability and counterterrorism cooperation, as Tunisia hosts key anti-ISIS efforts. The EU and US, major aid donors, face pressure to condition support on democratic backsliding, potentially straining partnerships. For the Arab world, this tests the post-Arab Spring viability of Islamist governance, influencing movements from Morocco to Sudan. Looking ahead, intensified appeals could lead to harsher sentences, further eroding opposition space and risking protests akin to 2021's 'Kaismania' backlash. Yet Ennahda's grassroots resilience and international advocacy might sustain resistance, prolonging Tunisia's hybrid authoritarian drift rather than full democratic reversal.