Deep Dive: Syria Expands Military Operations Against ISIS and Former Regime Elements

Syria's expansion of operations against ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, a transnational jihadist group that once controlled large swathes of Syrian and Iraqi territory) and former regime elements occurs amid a complex post-civil war landscape. The Syrian government, under President Bashar al-Assad, has regained control over most of the country since Russian intervention in 2015, but pockets of instability persist, particularly in the east where ISIS remnants operate and in areas influenced by the former Assad regime's opponents. This move reflects Damascus's strategic interest in consolidating power and eliminating dual threats that undermine state authority. Key actors include the Syrian Arab Army, backed by Iran and Russia, whose interests lie in preventing ISIS resurgence that could destabilize the region and draw in Western intervention. Former regime elements likely refer to dissident factions or loyalists from the pre-2011 era, though the term is vague, pointing to internal fractures. Culturally, Syria's Alawite-dominated leadership views these groups as existential threats, rooted in the 2011 uprising that evolved into a multi-factional war involving Sunnis, Kurds, and foreign powers. Cross-border implications extend to Iraq, where ISIS originated, and Turkey, which combats Kurdish forces allied against ISIS but opposes Assad. Neighboring Jordan and Lebanon face refugee flows and spillover violence, while global powers like the US (maintaining a presence in eastern Syria against ISIS) and Israel (striking Iranian-linked targets) are affected. This escalation could reshape migration patterns and energy routes through the Levant. The outlook hinges on great power dynamics: Russian support bolsters Assad, but US sanctions and Turkish incursions limit full control. Long-term, neutralizing these threats might stabilize Syria but risks alienating Sunni populations, perpetuating cycles of insurgency.