Deep Dive: Sudan's Al-Tuwaijri Initiative Confronts Harsh Realities Between War and Peace

Sudan remains mired in a protracted civil war since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), fueled by power struggles following the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir. Al-Tuwaijri's initiative, likely referencing Saudi or Gulf-mediated peace proposals named after a key diplomat, emerges as a diplomatic push amid escalating humanitarian catastrophe, with over 10 million displaced and famine looming in Darfur. Geopolitically, external actors like the UAE (backing RSF), Egypt (supporting SAF), Russia (via Wagner mercenaries for gold), and Western powers seeking stability for migration control shape the conflict's intractability. Culturally, Sudan's Arab-African divide exacerbates tensions, with RSF drawing from Janjaweed militias historically tied to Darfur atrocities, while SAF represents Khartoum's elite. The initiative faces reality checks from battlefield gains, such as RSF's control over much of Darfur and SAF's hold on the east, underscoring why ceasefires like the Jeddah talks have repeatedly failed. Regional intelligence reveals proxy dynamics: Gulf states vie for influence over Red Sea trade routes, Ethiopia fears spillover into its border conflicts, and South Sudan braces for refugee influxes destabilizing its fragile state. Cross-border implications ripple widely; Horn of Africa migration surges strain Egypt and Ethiopia, while disrupted Nile flows affect Egypt's water security. Globally, Sudan's gold and uranium resources draw illicit trade, funding arms and evading sanctions, impacting Western sanctions efficacy. Humanitarian corridors blocked prolong suffering, with UN warnings of world's worst hunger crisis affecting 25 million Sudanese. Outlook remains dim without inclusive talks addressing root grievances like resource federalism and militia integration, as Al-Tuwaijri's effort highlights diplomacy's uphill battle against entrenched warlordism. Key stakeholders include SAF prioritizing military victory, RSF leveraging economic control, and IGAD mediating regionally but sidelined by Arab powers. This nuance reveals no simplistic good-vs-evil; both sides commit atrocities, per UN reports, complicating neutral brokerage. Peace hinges on neutralizing foreign meddling, yet strategic interests—UAE ports, Russian minerals—prolong stalemate, dooming initiatives to 'face reality' without paradigm shifts.