Deep Dive: Sudan condemns Uganda for hosting RSF leader Dagalo

Sudan's condemnation of Uganda for hosting Dagalo, the leader of the RSF (Rapid Support Forces, Sudan's paramilitary faction clashing with the Sudanese Armed Forces since April 2023), reflects the intricate web of regional diplomacy in East Africa. Uganda's decision to host Dagalo signals potential mediation efforts or strategic alignment amid Sudan's civil war, which has displaced millions and destabilized the region. From a geopolitical lens, this move underscores Uganda's balancing act between supporting Sudanese sovereignty claims and engaging with non-state actors like the RSF to influence outcomes in a conflict with broader Horn of Africa ramifications. Historically, Sudan-Uganda relations have been strained by cross-border insurgencies and refugee flows, with Uganda hosting over a million Sudanese refugees while navigating accusations of harboring rebels. Culturally, both nations share Nilotic and Bantu influences, but political divergences—Uganda's long-standing Museveni regime versus Sudan's post-Bashir transition—amplify mistrust. The RSF's roots in the Janjaweed militias from Darfur add layers of ethnic and historical grievances, making Dagalo's regional travels a flashpoint for accusations of interference. Key actors include Sudan's transitional government, seeking to isolate the RSF internationally, and Uganda, whose strategic interests involve securing borders, countering Islamist threats from Somalia, and positioning as a regional power broker via the East African Community (EAC) and African Union (AU). Cross-border implications extend to Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, where refugee crises and arms flows intensify. Beyond the region, global powers like the UAE (RSF backer), Russia (via Wagner ties), and the US/EU (supporting SAF) watch closely, as prolonged conflict disrupts Red Sea trade and Nile water security. Looking ahead, this incident could prompt AU mediation or escalate to sanctions rhetoric, but Uganda's hosting may embolden RSF negotiations, prolonging the war unless inclusive talks resume. The nuance lies in not viewing Uganda purely as a RSF ally—its actions likely aim at pragmatic stability amid humanitarian catastrophe.