Deep Dive: Oman-mediated third round of indirect US-Iran nuclear talks begins in Geneva

The resumption of indirect US-Iran talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman, represents a critical juncture in one of the most enduring diplomatic standoffs in modern Middle East geopolitics. From the Senior Geopolitical Analyst's lens, these negotiations trace back to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which curbed Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, only to unravel after the US withdrawal in 2018 under President Trump. Iran's subsequent uranium enrichment advancements have heightened tensions, positioning Oman—a neutral Gulf actor with longstanding ties to both Tehran and Washington—as a pivotal mediator leveraging its history of discreet diplomacy, such as in the 1979 Iranian Revolution and Yemen peace efforts. Key actors include the US, seeking to prevent nuclear proliferation amid broader strategic competition with Iran-backed proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; Iran, pursuing economic relief from sanctions crippling its oil exports and currency; and Oman, advancing its foreign policy of bridge-building to secure regional stability. The International Affairs Correspondent highlights cross-border ripple effects: successful talks could ease humanitarian crises in Iran, where sanctions exacerbate medicine shortages and inflation affecting 85 million people, while stabilizing oil markets vital for Europe and Asia. Failure risks escalation, potentially involving Israel, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, and even drawing in China and Russia, who have deepened economic ties with Iran via the Belt and Road Initiative and arms deals. Migration pressures could intensify if economic woes push more Iranians toward Europe, echoing the 2022 protests over Mahsa Amini's death that underscored domestic unrest intertwined with nuclear hardlining. Through the Regional Intelligence Expert's view, cultural and historical contexts illuminate Iran's strategic calculus: Persian nationalism frames nuclear pursuits as sovereignty against perceived Western imperialism, rooted in the 1953 CIA-backed coup and eight-year Iran-Iraq War. Oman's Ibadi Muslim tradition fosters impartiality, contrasting Sunni-Shia divides fueling proxy conflicts. Geneva's selection underscores Switzerland's neutrality, hosting prior P5+1 talks. Stakeholders beyond the region—EU nations reliant on Strait of Hormuz oil transits (20% of global supply), US allies facing Houthi disruptions, and global non-proliferation regimes—hang in balance. Outlook remains cautious: indirect format preserves face-saving for hardliners on both sides, but breakthroughs hinge on US election dynamics and Iran's supreme leader's fatwas against weapons.