Deep Dive: Last-chance negotiations on US-Iran tensions set for Thursday in Geneva

The article highlights last-chance negotiations scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, framed against speculation of an imminent US attack on Iran. From a geopolitical lens, this reflects longstanding US-Iran tensions rooted in Iran's nuclear program, regional proxy conflicts, and sanctions since the 1979 revolution. Key actors include the United States pursuing non-proliferation and countering Iranian influence in the Middle East, and Iran defending its sovereignty while advancing strategic deterrence. Geneva (a hub for neutral diplomacy hosted by Switzerland) provides a neutral venue, underscoring multilateral efforts to avert escalation. As international correspondent, these talks carry cross-border risks: failure could spike oil prices affecting global markets, exacerbate refugee flows from potential conflict zones like Syria and Yemen, and strain alliances such as NATO and Gulf states. Regional intelligence reveals cultural contexts where Iran's Shia leadership views US actions as existential threats, while Sunni neighbors like Saudi Arabia see opportunities or dangers in power shifts. Stakeholders extend to Europe wary of energy disruptions, China invested in Iranian oil, and Russia leveraging divisions for influence. Implications are profound: success might de-escalate, fostering trade resumption; failure risks broader war drawing in Israel, Hezbollah, and Houthis, with humanitarian crises in densely populated areas. Outlook hinges on Thursday's outcome, but historical precedents like the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear deal abandoned by the US in 2018) show fragility. Nuance lies in power dynamics—US domestic politics, Iranian hardliners, and global multipolarity prevent simplistic good-vs-evil narratives, demanding sustained diplomacy.