Deep Dive: Kallas demands Russia withdraw troops from Belarus, Armenia, Moldova and pay reparations

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has made a bold demand directed at Russia, calling for the withdrawal of its troops from three countries: Belarus, Armenia, and Moldova. This statement reflects heightened tensions in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus, where Russia's military presence has long been a point of contention. From a geopolitical lens, Russia's troop deployments serve strategic interests, such as securing alliances and projecting power amid ongoing conflicts like the war in Ukraine. Belarus hosts Russian forces as part of a union state agreement, Armenia relies on Russia for defense via the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Moldova faces Russian troops in the breakaway Transnistria region, complicating its EU aspirations. Historically, these deployments trace back to Soviet-era legacies and post-1991 arrangements. In Belarus, integration deepened after 2020 protests, positioning it as a launchpad for Russian operations. Armenia's dependence intensified after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, though recent shifts toward Azerbaijan have strained ties with Moscow. Moldova's frozen conflict in Transnistria, with around 1,500 Russian peacekeepers, blocks unification with Romania and EU integration. Kallas, as a vocal NATO and EU figure from Estonia—a former Soviet republic—embodies Baltic states' pushback against Russian influence, amplifying Western calls for de-escalation. Cross-border implications ripple through Europe and Eurasia. NATO members like Poland and the Baltics view Belarus deployments as direct threats, prompting military buildups. Armenia's pivot could destabilize the Caucasus, affecting energy routes and Turkey-Azerbaijan ties. Moldova's situation impacts EU enlargement, with Romania and Ukraine watching closely. Globally, this escalates great-power rivalry, influencing energy markets, migration from conflict zones, and alliances like BRICS versus the West. Stakeholders include the EU (pushing sanctions), CSTO (Russia-led), and local populations bearing occupation costs. Looking ahead, Russia's response will signal its post-Ukraine posture. Compliance is unlikely given strategic depths, but demands like Kallas's bolster Western unity and pressure narratives. This could spur hybrid threats or diplomatic freezes, while affected nations navigate sovereignty between Moscow and the West. Nuance lies in each country's unique dependencies—no simplistic 'occupation' fits all, as Armenia once welcomed Russian bases for security.