Jordan's move against the Islamic Action Front (IAF, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in the kingdom) reflects the Hashemite monarchy's longstanding strategy to control Islamist influence in politics amid regional turbulence. The Independent Election Commission (IEC), tasked with overseeing electoral integrity, enforces the Political Parties Law to prevent parties from leveraging religious identities, a policy rooted in Jordan's secular-leaning governance despite its Muslim-majority population. Historically, the IAF has been a key opposition force, gaining significant seats in past elections like 1989 and 2010, challenging the monarchy on issues like economic inequality and Palestinian rights, but recent crackdowns post-2021 Gaza tensions signal heightened security concerns. Geopolitically, this targets the Muslim Brotherhood's network, banned recently, as Jordan balances alliances with the US, Israel, and Gulf states wary of Brotherhood offshoots. King Abdullah II's regime views overt Islamism as a threat to stability, especially with 2 million Palestinian refugees and proximity to Syria and Iraq's conflicts. Culturally, Jordan's Bedouin tribal loyalties and urban Islamist divides underpin this; the IAF draws from conservative Sunni bases in cities like Zarqa and Irbid, while the state promotes pan-Jordanian nationalism. Cross-border implications ripple to Egypt, where Sisi crushed the Brotherhood post-2013, and Turkey, a Brotherhood patron under Erdogan, potentially straining Amman-Ankara ties. Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and UAE, funding Jordan's economy, support such secularization to curb political Islam. For Palestinians, the IAF's vocal West Bank advocacy means weakened voices in Jordan could mute regional criticism of Israel. Outlook: Non-compliance risks IAF's dissolution before 2026 polls, boosting pro-regime parties but fueling underground opposition, testing Jordan's delicate pluralism. This nuance avoids simplistic 'authoritarian crackdown' narratives; it's a calculated preservation of monarchical power in a volatile Levant, where religion-politics fusion has fueled neighbors' upheavals like Gaza's Hamas rise.
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