Deep Dive: Jalisco New Generation Cartel rose to power in Mexico; future uncertain without leader El Mencho

From a geopolitical lens, the CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel) exemplifies how non-state actors challenge state sovereignty in Mexico, a key U.S. neighbor. Mexico's federal structure, with states like Jalisco as cartel strongholds, allows groups like CJNG to control territories through violence, undermining national security. Historically, Mexican cartels evolved from the 1980s cocaine trade boom, but CJNG split from the Sinaloa Cartel around 2010, using military-grade weapons and drones to surpass rivals. El Mencho's leadership centralized power, making CJNG the dominant force in fentanyl and methamphetamine production, fueling the U.S. opioid crisis. As international correspondent, cross-border implications are stark: CJNG's operations span Mexico to the U.S., Europe, and Asia, with strategic interests in export routes and money laundering. U.S. agencies like DEA have a $10 million bounty on El Mencho, reflecting bilateral tensions over migration, trade (via USMCA), and security cooperation under initiatives like the Mérida Initiative. Without El Mencho, power vacuums could spike violence, affecting Central American migration routes and straining U.S.-Mexico relations. Globally, this disrupts synthetic drug supplies, impacting public health in consumer nations. Regionally, in Jalisco and western Mexico, cultural factors like machismo and economic desperation in rural areas sustain cartel recruitment. Indigenous and mestizo communities face extortion, forced labor, and disappearances, eroding social fabric. Key actors include Mexican President López Obrador's 'hugs not bullets' policy, which critics say emboldens cartels, versus hardline military deployments. Outlook: El Mencho's absence might splinter CJNG into warring factions, echoing post-Pablo Escobar Colombia, or empower a successor, prolonging instability. Stakeholders range from local farmers coerced into poppy cultivation to international banks inadvertently handling narco-funds. Nuance lies in CJNG's dual role as economic provider in impoverished zones via 'narco-social services,' complicating eradication efforts. This hybrid insurgency model influences global counter-narcotics strategies, from Colombia's Plan Colombia to Afghanistan's opium wars.