Deep Dive: Israeli President Herzog visits Ethiopia as Israel expands influence in divided Horn of Africa

The visit by Israeli President Herzog to Ethiopia highlights Israel's strategic push into the Horn of Africa, a region long marked by interstate rivalries and internal divisions. Historically, the Horn—encompassing Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti—has been a hotspot for proxy conflicts involving global powers, with Ethiopia as the largest and most influential actor due to its population, military, and role in African Union affairs. Israel's expansion here aligns with its broader interests in securing Red Sea access and countering Iranian influence through alliances with local governments. Key actors include Israel, seeking to bolster security cooperation and economic ties, and Ethiopia, which benefits from Israeli technology and agricultural expertise amid its post-civil war recovery. Regional tensions, such as Ethiopia's disputes with Eritrea and involvement in Somalia's instability, make this partnership nuanced; Israel navigates these by focusing on bilateral deals rather than multilateral entanglements. Other stakeholders like the UAE and Turkey, already active in the region, view Israel's moves competitively, potentially escalating a new layer of great-power competition. Cross-border implications extend to global trade routes, as the Horn controls Bab el-Mandeb strait chokepoints vital for 12% of world oil shipments. European nations face heightened migration pressures from Horn conflicts, while Arab states monitor Israel's inroads warily due to Palestinian ties. For affected populations, this could mean improved infrastructure but also risks of further militarization. Looking ahead, Herzog's visit signals a long-term Israeli commitment, potentially leading to defense pacts and port deals, though regional divisions like Tigray fallout and Somali piracy threats pose risks to stability. This development reshapes African-Israeli relations, traditionally centered on South Africa but now pivoting east.