Deep Dive: Israel plans attacks on Iran's underground missile sites in second phase of war

The announcement of Israel targeting Iran's underground missile sites represents a significant escalation in the direct military confrontation between the two nations, moving from proxy conflicts to overt strikes on hardened infrastructure. Historically, Iran's missile program has been a cornerstone of its defense strategy, developed over decades to deter attacks and project power across the Middle East, with underground sites designed to withstand conventional bombings. Israel's decision reflects its longstanding strategic imperative to neutralize perceived existential threats from Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, which could target Israeli cities or allies. Key actors include Israel, pursuing preemptive degradation of Iran's retaliatory capabilities, and Iran, whose fortified sites symbolize its asymmetric warfare doctrine rooted in the 1979 Islamic Revolution's emphasis on self-reliance against superior foes. Regional intelligence highlights how these sites, often buried in mountainous terrain, complicate operations and risk prolonged engagements. The 'second phase' implies an ongoing war framework, likely building on prior exchanges like Israel's October 2024 strikes on Iranian facilities. Cross-border implications extend to the United States, whose regional bases and alliances could face Iranian reprisals, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, vulnerable to missile barrages disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe faces energy price spikes from potential supply disruptions, while global shipping routes in the Persian Gulf risk closures. Stakeholders such as Hezbollah and other Iran-backed militias may intensify actions, broadening the conflict. Looking ahead, success in penetrating underground sites could shift power dynamics, weakening Iran's deterrence but provoking asymmetric responses like cyber attacks or proxy offensives. Failure might embolden Iran, prolonging the war and drawing in more actors. Diplomatic off-ramps appear narrow amid heightened tensions.