Deep Dive: Islamic State Launches Two Attacks on Syrian Army Under New President Ahmed es-Saraa

The Islamic State (ISIS), a transnational jihadist organization that emerged prominently during the Syrian civil war starting in 2014, continues to pose a threat to Syrian government forces despite territorial losses. These two attacks on the Syrian army highlight the persistent insurgency in post-Assad Syria, where Ahmed es-Saraa, the new president, is described as 'the global coalition's watchdog.' This nickname suggests his close ties to the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, formed in 2014 to combat the group through airstrikes, training, and support for local forces like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). From a geopolitical lens, ISIS exploits power vacuums in Syria's fragmented landscape, where the army—remnants of the Assad regime—struggles amid competing influences from Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the West. Historically, Syria's conflict, ignited by 2011 Arab Spring protests, evolved into a multi-front war involving ISIS's 2014 caliphate declaration across Syria and Iraq. The fall of Assad in late 2024 paved the way for es-Saraa's leadership, potentially signaling a shift toward Western-aligned governance, but ISIS attacks underscore vulnerabilities in transitioning state control. Culturally, Syria's diverse Sunni, Alawite, Kurdish, and Christian populations fuel proxy battles, with ISIS drawing on radical Salafi-jihadist ideology to recruit amid economic despair and sectarian tensions. Key actors include the Syrian army seeking to reassert authority, es-Saraa balancing domestic legitimacy with international backing, and the Global Coalition monitoring for ISIS resurgence. Cross-border implications ripple to Iraq, where ISIS remnants operate, and Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan hosting millions of Syrian refugees fearing renewed violence. Stakeholders like the U.S., providing coalition support, face renewed commitments, while Russia and Iran—former Assad backers—may view es-Saraa skeptically, potentially escalating proxy confrontations. Humanitarian crises worsen, with attacks disrupting aid corridors. Outlook remains tense: without unified anti-ISIS efforts, Syria risks prolonged instability, affecting global energy markets via regional pipelines and migration flows to Europe.