Deep Dive: Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi says fully prepared for war or peace ahead of US nuclear talks

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's declaration of readiness for both war and peace underscores the high-stakes nature of the impending nuclear negotiations with the United States. From a geopolitical lens, this reflects Iran's strategic positioning amid longstanding tensions rooted in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which aimed to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief but collapsed after the US withdrawal in 2018 under President Trump. Iran, as a key regional power in the Middle East, leverages its nuclear program as a deterrent against perceived threats from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Western powers, while the US seeks to prevent proliferation that could destabilize global energy markets and embolden non-state actors. The International Affairs Correspondent perspective highlights cross-border ripple effects: successful talks could ease sanctions, boosting Iran's oil exports and stabilizing global energy prices, benefiting importers like China and India. Failure, however, risks escalation, potentially involving proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, drawing in Russia and China as Iran's backers against US-led coalitions. Humanitarian crises could intensify, with Iranian civilians already suffering from economic isolation, and migration pressures mounting on neighboring Turkey and Europe. Regionally, Iran's Shia leadership draws cultural legitimacy from resisting 'Great Satan' narratives, resonating with domestic hardliners while testing reformist impulses under President Pezeshkian. Key actors include the US under Biden, prioritizing diplomacy to avoid war ahead of elections; Israel, viewing Iran's nukes as existential; and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), monitoring compliance. Implications extend to Gulf monarchies fearing empowered Iran, and Europe wary of refugee surges. Outlook remains precarious: Araghchi's dual preparedness signals brinkmanship, where miscalculation could spark conflict, yet mutual economic incentives for de-escalation persist. Nuance lies in Iran's advanced centrifuges and uranium enrichment beyond JCPOA limits, giving leverage but inviting strikes, while US domestic politics constrain bold concessions. Stakeholders like the EU E3 (France, Germany, UK) mediate, but China's brokering role in Saudi-Iran détente adds multipolarity.