From the geopolitical analyst's perspective, Iran's call reflects longstanding tensions in US-Iran relations, rooted in the 2018 US withdrawal from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers including the US), which led to reimposed sanctions and Iran's gradual breach of nuclear limits. Oman, a neutral Gulf state with ties to both sides, has historically mediated such dialogues, as seen in prior secret talks leading to the original deal. Key actors include Iran seeking sanctions relief to bolster its economy amid domestic pressures, the US pursuing non-proliferation to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional influence via proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis, and Oman acting as a bridge to prevent escalation that could involve Israel or Saudi Arabia. The international affairs correspondent highlights the cross-border stakes: failure here risks broader Middle East instability, disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz (handling 20% of global supply), spiking energy prices worldwide, and exacerbating humanitarian crises in Yemen and Syria where Iran-backed groups operate. Talks' 'final effort' status underscores urgency, with implications for global migration if conflict displaces millions, and trade routes if naval confrontations occur. Stakeholders extend to Europe reliant on stable energy imports, China as Iran's top oil buyer, and Russia benefiting from distracted Western attention on Ukraine. Regionally, intelligence experts note Oman's cultural role as a Balochi-influenced, Ibadi Muslim kingdom fostering quiet diplomacy amid Sunni-Shia divides, contrasting Saudi-Iran rivalry. Iran's position stems from cultural emphasis on sovereignty post-1979 Revolution, viewing US demands as hegemonic. Success could de-escalate proxy wars; failure might embolden hardliners on both sides, affecting Persian Gulf populations through potential blockades or strikes. Outlook hinges on US election cycles and Iran's internal politics, with nuance in mutual distrust despite shared interest in averting war.
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