Deep Dive: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto plans Gaza troop deployment amid domestic solidarity doubts

Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-majority nation, has long positioned itself as a leader in the Non-Aligned Movement and a vocal supporter of Palestinian self-determination, rooted in its post-colonial history and cultural affinity with anti-imperialist struggles. President Prabowo Subianto (former special forces commander with a controversial past), elected in 2024, views deploying troops to Gaza as a strategic bid to project Indonesia as a middle power capable of peacekeeping and humanitarian intervention, aligning with his vision of Indonesia as a 'global maritime fulcrum' bridging Asia, the Middle East, and beyond. This move draws on Indonesia's military experience in UN missions like those in Lebanon and Congo, but Gaza's volatile context—amid Israeli-Palestinian conflict—raises risks of entanglement in a proxy war involving Iran, Hezbollah, and Western powers. Key actors include Prabowo himself, whose personal ambitions intersect with state interests; the Indonesian military (TNI), seeking relevance post-Cold War; and Palestinian authorities potentially welcoming Muslim troop presence for optics. Domestically, Islamist groups and public opinion, shaped by Friday sermons and social media amplifying Gaza imagery, question the deployment's motives—fearing it dilutes pure solidarity or serves elite power plays. Regionally, this tests ASEAN's non-interference principle while signaling to rivals like Australia and India that Indonesia eyes Indian Ocean influence. Cross-border implications ripple to the Muslim world: Saudi Arabia and Turkey may view it as competition in ummah leadership, while the US and Israel could pressure Indonesia via aid or trade. For Gazans, Indonesian troops might aid aid delivery but risk becoming targets, affecting 2.3 million civilians. Globally, it challenges multipolar shifts, with BRICS+ nations watching if Indonesia pivots from US orbit. Outlook: Domestic protests could force Prabowo to scale back, or success might cement his legacy, but failure risks reputational damage akin to Egypt's peacekeeping strains.