Deep Dive: Former Israel Navy chief Marom: US strikes on Iran aim to weaken regime, not change it

The statement by Eli Marom (former commander of the Israel Navy), reflects longstanding tensions in the Middle East, where Israel and the US have coordinated on countering Iran's regional influence without pursuing full regime change, a policy shift from earlier neoconservative approaches post-2003 Iraq invasion. Iran's theocratic government, rooted in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has expanded proxy networks via Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria, prompting Israeli preemptive strikes and US sanctions to curb nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile programs. Key actors include the US, seeking to deter Iranian aggression while avoiding quagmire amid domestic fatigue from Afghanistan and Iraq withdrawals; Israel, prioritizing survival against existential threats; and Iran, leveraging asymmetric warfare to project power despite economic isolation. Marom's view aligns with recent escalations, such as Israel's April 2024 strikes on Iranian targets following Tehran's drone and missile barrage, signaling a calibrated deterrence cycle rather than all-out war. Cross-border implications extend to Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE, reliant on US security guarantees, and Europe facing energy disruptions and migration pressures from instability. Globally, China and Russia back Iran economically and militarily, complicating UN efforts, while oil markets remain volatile. This nuanced strategy preserves Iran's regime as a predictable adversary, allowing containment without the chaos of state collapse, though risks miscalculation loom large. Looking ahead, US elections and Israel's domestic politics under Netanyahu will shape responses, with weakening strikes potentially targeting IRGC assets or nuclear sites to signal resolve without boots on the ground. Regional intelligence underscores cultural divides: Iran's Persian-Shiite identity fuels anti-Western narratives, contrasting Sunni Arab normalization with Israel via Abraham Accords, reshaping alliances.