Deep Dive: Experts warn war between Iran and US more likely than deal after Trump's 10-15 day deadline

From a geopolitical analyst's perspective, the ultimatum issued by US President Donald Trump (then in office) exemplifies the high-stakes brinkmanship characteristic of US-Iran relations, rooted in decades of mutual distrust stemming from the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the hostage crisis, and subsequent sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. Iran's strategic interests lie in maintaining regional influence through proxies like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq and Syria, while the US seeks to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions and support allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. This deadline intensifies the power dynamics, where failure to negotiate could escalate to military confrontation, altering Middle East balances. The international affairs correspondent lens reveals cross-border ripples: a war would disrupt global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy prices worldwide and exacerbating humanitarian crises in Yemen and Syria where Iran-backed forces operate. Key actors include the US as the deadline-setter aiming for a 'maximum pressure' strategy, Iran resisting perceived capitulation, and organizations like the IAEA monitoring nuclear compliance. Migration and trade could suffer, with refugees fleeing potential conflict zones impacting Europe and Gulf states. Regionally, Iran's Shia theocracy views US demands as existential threats, culturally framed by anti-imperialist narratives, while Sunni Arab neighbors quietly back pressure on Tehran to prevent dominance. Historical context includes the collapsed 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal under Trump, fostering hardline positions on both sides. Implications extend to China and Russia, who might exploit divisions by supporting Iran economically, and Europe facing energy shocks. Outlook remains volatile, with experts' war probability underscoring negotiation fragility amid domestic politics in both nations. Nuance lies in the asymmetry: US conventional superiority versus Iran's asymmetric warfare capabilities, including missiles and cyber tools, making any conflict protracted and costly beyond the region, potentially drawing in NATO allies and reshaping global alliances.