Deep Dive: Expert claims Colombia's Total Peace plan has increased conflicts amid guerrilla growth to 27,000 members

Colombia's Total Peace plan (Paz Total), launched under President Gustavo Petro's administration in 2022, aimed to negotiate ceasefires and demobilization with multiple armed groups simultaneously, including the ELN (National Liberation Army), EMC (Central General Staff, a FARC dissident faction), and others, marking a shift from the 2016 peace accord with FARC that ended a 52-year conflict but left dissident groups active. Historically, Colombia's internal armed conflict, rooted in land inequality, coca cultivation, and state weakness since the 1960s, has involved Marxist guerrillas, right-wing paramilitaries, and drug cartels, with over 260,000 deaths; the plan sought to address this by offering legal pathways for groups to transition to politics, but experts argue it has instead emboldened recruitment by signaling government leniency without enforcement. Key actors include the Petro government, prioritizing 'total peace' as a flagship policy to fulfill campaign promises amid economic pressures and U.S. demands for anti-drug efforts; guerrilla leaders like ELN's Antonio Garcia and EMC's Ivan Mordisco, who use negotiations to regroup and expand territorial control in regions like Catatumbo and Arauca; and organized crime gangs (BACRIM), which fill power vacuums in cocaine routes. Strategic interests diverge: the government seeks legitimacy and reduced violence to boost investment, while armed groups exploit talks to recruit, taxing illicit economies worth billions annually. Regional intelligence reveals cultural factors, such as rural distrust of Bogota elites and indigenous/paisa loyalties to local commanders, undermining centralized peace efforts. Cross-border implications ripple to Venezuela, where ELN and dissidents operate bases, straining relations with Caracas under Maduro and prompting U.S. sanctions scrutiny; Ecuador faces spillover violence from border mafias, disrupting trade; and Brazil contends with Amazon narcotrafficking routes. Beyond Latin America, the U.S., Colombia's top aid donor ($500M+ yearly for Plan Colombia legacy), worries over weakened anti-drug ops, potentially affecting hemispheric security and migration flows to North America. Humanitarian crises worsen, with 8M+ displaced Colombians, as expanded armed presence hampers aid delivery. Outlook remains precarious: without verifiable ceasefires or dismantling criminal finances, membership growth signals policy failure, risking escalation toward civil war dynamics. Petro's leftist coalition pushes for social reforms to address root causes like inequality (Gini 0.54), but fiscal constraints and 2026 elections loom. International actors like UN and OAS monitor, but success hinges on balancing dialogue with coercion, preserving nuance in a conflict where no side holds absolute power.