Deep Dive: EIB Publishes Map Showing Morocco's Full Territory Including Western Sahara for First Time

From the Senior Geopolitical Analyst's lens, this EIB map represents a significant diplomatic shift, solidifying EU alignment with Morocco's longstanding claim over Western Sahara amid intensifying great-power competition in North Africa. Historically, Western Sahara has been a flashpoint since Spain's withdrawal in 1975, when Morocco annexed the territory, sparking a conflict with the Polisario Front backed by Algeria. The EU's unified endorsement of Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan, now visually reinforced by the EIB's map, counters Algeria's insistence on a self-determination referendum and reflects strategic interests in securing energy routes, migration control, and countering Russian influence post-Ukraine war. Key actors include Morocco under King Mohammed VI pursuing 'territorial integrity' to bolster national unity, the EU prioritizing stability for trade and fisheries agreements worth billions, and the UN whose Resolution 2797 (2025) pivots negotiations solely to Morocco's framework, sidelining broader options. The International Affairs Correspondent highlights cross-border ripple effects: this overt EU support strengthens Morocco's hand in bilateral deals like the EU-Morocco Association Agreement, enhancing trade in phosphates, agriculture, and renewables while addressing humanitarian concerns in Western Sahara's refugee camps in Algeria. Beyond Europe and North Africa, it impacts global south dynamics, with the US (via 2020 recognition of Moroccan sovereignty) and France (historical ties) seeing reinforced positions, whereas Algeria faces isolation, potentially escalating tensions over shared borders and gas pipelines to Europe. Migration flows from sub-Saharan Africa through Morocco to Europe could stabilize with better EU-Rabat cooperation, but risks provoking Polisario militancy or Algerian proxy actions. The Regional Intelligence Expert provides cultural context: in Moroccan national narrative, Western Sahara is integral 'Southern Provinces' tied to Arab-Berber heritage and Sahrawi tribes historically linked to the Alaouite dynasty, contrasting Polisario's Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic vision rooted in anti-colonial resistance. EU adoption of the 'full map' validates Rabat's integration efforts like infrastructure investments in Laayoune and Dakhla, fostering economic inclusion for Sahrawis, though human rights groups decry suppression of dissent. Implications extend to Sahel security, where Moroccan stability aids counter-terrorism against jihadists spilling from Mali, affecting EU citizens via safer supply chains and reduced irregular migration.