Deep Dive: Dbeibah's Libyan government amendments omit sovereign ministries, sparking public questions

Libya's political landscape remains fractured since the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, with parallel governments vying for legitimacy: the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and the eastern Government of National Stability backed by the House of Representatives. Dbeibah, selected in 2021 under UN auspices to unify the country ahead of elections that never materialized, has clung to power amid stalled transitions, deepening divisions between west and east. Sovereign ministries—encompassing defense, interior, and foreign affairs—hold outsized importance as they control military, security, and diplomatic levers in a nation plagued by militias and foreign meddling from actors like Turkey, Russia, Egypt, and the UAE. The amendments, by sidelining these portfolios, signal Dbeibah's prioritization of civilian or economic roles, possibly to consolidate loyalty among Tripoli factions while avoiding challenges to entrenched power centers like Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army in the east. This move underscores the GNU's precarious control, limited to western Libya, and reflects broader patterns of patronage politics where cabinet shuffles reward allies rather than reform institutions. Public questions reflect fatigue with endless reshuffles that fail to address core issues like oil revenue sharing, which fuels 90% of Libya's budget and attracts international stakeholders. Geopolitically, this fuels uncertainty over Libya's 1.4 million barrel-per-day oil production, vital to Europe's energy security post-Ukraine war. Neighboring Tunisia and Egypt watch closely, as instability risks migration surges and jihadist spillovers. For Libyans, it perpetuates a status quo where sovereignty is nominal, with implications for stalled UN reunification efforts and potential escalation if eastern rivals perceive weakness. Outlook remains dim without external pressure for elections, as Dbeibah's maneuver may embolden rivals or invite further fragmentation.