Deep Dive: Chadian army mobilizes forces in Tina border area with Sudan

The mobilization of Chadian forces in the Tina border area reflects longstanding tensions between Chad and Sudan, exacerbated by the Darfur conflict that spilled over since the early 2000s. Chad's government, under President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno following his father's death in battle against rebels allegedly backed by Sudan, views the border as a vulnerability for insurgent incursions and rebel groups like the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT). Sudan, grappling with its own civil war since 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has porous borders that facilitate arms smuggling, refugee flows, and militia activities, making Tina a flashpoint. From a geopolitical lens, this move signals Chad's intent to secure its territory amid regional instability, where actors like the RSF control parts of Darfur adjacent to Chad, potentially enabling cross-border raids. The Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) and G5 Sahel partners monitor such developments, as instability here affects counterterrorism against Boko Haram and ISWAP. Culturally, the Tina area is inhabited by Zaghawa and other nomadic groups with kinship ties across the border, complicating national loyalties and fueling proxy conflicts. Cross-border implications extend to humanitarian crises, with over 400,000 Sudanese refugees in Chad straining resources in eastern provinces like Ouaddaï. Neighboring countries like Libya and the Central African Republic face spillover risks, while global powers such as France (with lingering influence via Operation Barkhane legacy), Russia (via Wagner/ Africa Corps in Sudan), and the UAE (backing RSF) have stakes in stabilizing or exploiting the chaos. Economically, gold smuggling from Darfur through Chad disrupts regional trade. Looking ahead, this mobilization could deter incursions but risks escalation if Sudan perceives it as provocative, potentially drawing in UN peacekeeping remnants or AU mediation efforts. For civilians, it heightens fears of renewed fighting in a region scarred by decades of violence, with NGOs like MSF warning of access restrictions.