Deep Dive: Bolivia suspends recognition of self-proclaimed SADR

Bolivia's suspension of recognition for the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) reflects a nuanced recalibration in Latin American diplomacy toward the long-standing Western Sahara conflict. From the Senior Geopolitical Analyst's lens, this move aligns Bolivia with a growing number of states prioritizing relations with Morocco, which administers most of Western Sahara and views the SADR as an illegitimate entity propped up by the Polisario Front. Historically, the conflict stems from Spain's 1975 withdrawal, leading to Morocco's Green March annexation and subsequent guerrilla war, with the SADR declared in 1976 but recognized by only about 80 countries, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Bolivia's decision reduces the SADR's tally of recognitions, signaling strategic interests in economic ties, such as phosphate resources or migration routes that indirectly link South American actors to North African stability. The International Affairs Correspondent highlights cross-border ripples: this diplomatic pivot could encourage other Latin American nations, like those in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), to reassess their positions, potentially isolating the SADR further amid humanitarian concerns in the Tindouf refugee camps housing over 170,000 Sahrawis. Key actors include Morocco, seeking consolidated control for regional power projection; Algeria, the SADR's primary backer providing military and logistical support; and the United Nations, overseeing the inactive MINURSO (United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara) since 1991. Culturally, Bolivia's indigenous-majority society, with its own history of territorial disputes like the Pacific War loss, may view self-determination claims pragmatically against realpolitik gains from Morocco's stability. The Regional Intelligence Expert notes Bolivia's leftist governments have historically sympathized with anti-colonial causes, recognizing the SADR under Evo Morales in 2009, but recent administrations under Luis Arce face domestic pressures like economic woes and lithium diplomacy, prompting foreign policy pragmatism. Implications extend to global south alignments: reduced SADR support weakens Algeria's pan-Arab influence while bolstering Morocco's African Union reintegration post-2017. Beyond the region, European powers like Spain and France, with fishing and energy stakes, benefit from de-escalation, while U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in 2020 sets a precedent influencing Latin American shifts. Outlook suggests a slow erosion of SADR legitimacy, pressuring Polisario toward negotiations amid stalled referendums.