Deep Dive: Bolivia Breaks Off Diplomatic Relations with Polisario Front

Bolivia's decision to sever ties with the Polisario Front reflects a shift in its foreign policy toward the long-standing Western Sahara conflict, where the Polisario Front (a guerrilla movement backed primarily by Algeria) has controlled parts of the disputed territory since the 1970s Spanish withdrawal. From a geopolitical lens, this aligns Bolivia with Morocco and a growing number of Latin American states recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, countering Algeria's support for Sahrawi self-determination. Key actors include Morocco, seeking to consolidate control amid regional rivalries, and Algeria, whose strategic interests involve countering Moroccan influence in North Africa and securing phosphate resources. Historically, Bolivia under leftist governments like Evo Morales' had sympathized with anti-colonial causes, including the Polisario's independence bid, mirroring its own indigenous autonomy struggles. Culturally, Bolivia's Andean indigenous heritage fosters solidarity with Sahrawi nomads, but current leadership under Luis Arce prioritizes pragmatic diplomacy, possibly influenced by economic ties with Morocco in lithium and phosphates—minerals vital to Bolivia's resource-driven economy. This nuance avoids simplistic anti-colonial framing, highlighting Bolivia's balancing act between ideology and realpolitik. Cross-border implications extend to Latin America, where countries like Brazil and Uruguay may follow suit, strengthening a pro-Morocco bloc and pressuring holdouts like Venezuela. Globally, the U.S. and France back Morocco's Autonomy Plan, while South Africa and Algeria defend Polisario; Bolivia's move bolsters Western Sahara normalization efforts post-Abraham Accords. Affected parties include Sahrawi refugees in Algerian camps (over 170,000), facing reduced diplomatic leverage, and Moroccan businesses gaining from stabilized trade routes. Looking ahead, this could signal Bolivia distancing from 'pink tide' alliances, impacting ALBA bloc cohesion and opening doors for Moroccan investment in Bolivia's Salar de Uyuni lithium triangle. Regional intelligence underscores cultural diplomacy's role: Bolivia's break may strain ties with Algeria but enhance relations with Rabat, amid rising Global South realignments where resource security trumps historical affinities.