Deep Dive: Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev states peace with Armenia is not only on paper

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's assertion that peace with Armenia extends beyond paper reflects ongoing diplomatic efforts in the South Caucasus region, where Azerbaijan and Armenia have a history of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. From a geopolitical lens, this signals Baku's confidence in solidifying gains from the 2020 and 2023 military operations that restored control over disputed territories, reducing immediate territorial threats while positioning Azerbaijan as a regional energy hub with strategic interests in pipelines and alliances with Turkey and Israel. The International Affairs perspective notes cross-border implications for stability, potentially easing migration pressures and trade disruptions that have affected neighboring Georgia and Russia, though lingering border incidents underscore fragility. Culturally and historically, the enmity stems from Soviet-era ethnic demarcations and post-independence wars, with Armenian identity tied to Karabakh's ancient monasteries and Azerbaijan's to Turkic heritage, making reconciliation a delicate balance of national narratives. Key actors include Aliyev's regime, seeking domestic legitimacy through victory, and Armenia's government under Nikol Pashinyan, pressured by diaspora and EU ties to negotiate despite concessions. Organizations like the EU and Russia, former Minsk Group co-chairs, watch closely as their influence wanes. Implications ripple to Europe via reduced Russian leverage and to energy markets with Azerbaijan's gas exports to the EU bypassing sanctions-hit Russia. Outlook suggests tentative progress if border delimitation advances, but domestic hardliners in both countries could derail it, affecting 150 million in the wider Black Sea basin. Stakeholders beyond the region, including NATO and Iran, monitor for spillover risks.