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No Recession in Sight as Trade Truce Lifts U.S. Outlook

Left 60% Center coverage: 5 sources Right

New York, USA

May 17, 2025 0 Positive I want money/finance advice

New York, USA: Barclays has revised its forecasts, declaring that a U.S. recession now looks unlikely this year, thanks in part to a new trade pause between the United States and China. This thaw in tariff conflicts reduced business uncertainty, boosting the bank’s GDP outlook for America to slight expansion instead of contraction. Europe, too, might dodge a severe downturn. Analysts cite consumer resilience and cooling inflation as reasons for optimism. Nonetheless, potential flashpoints—like revived trade disputes—could still derail growth.

What this means for you:

•	If you’ve been holding off on major purchases or investments due to recession fears, consider revisiting your plans
•	Balanced portfolios remain wise; no immediate recession doesn’t mean zero volatility
•	Europe-based readers may see modest improvements in job markets and consumer spending
•	Keep an eye on interest rate adjustments from central banks; a stable economy could shift monetary policy

Key Entities

• Barclays: A major global bank founded in 1690. It provides research and forecasts on economic trends
• U.S. Economy: World’s largest national economy, now predicted to avoid recession
• China–U.S. Trade Relations: A crucial factor in global growth; improved dialogue has eased some uncertainty
• Federal Reserve: America’s central bank, which influences interest rates and monetary policy

Bias Distribution

Left: 20% (1 source)

Center: 60% (3 sources)

Right: 20% (1 source)

Multi-Perspective Analysis

Left-Leaning View

Emphasizes that improved trade ties might allow more consumer-focused policies

Centrist View

Highlights the data-driven shift in recession odds and balanced commentary

Right-Leaning View

Points to previous alarmism and says markets can power ahead with fewer regulations

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