Introduction & Context
Last week’s missile exchanges marked the worst Indo-Pak escalation in years. International mediators rushed in, fearing a slide toward a fourth full-scale war between the nuclear-armed rivals.
Background & History
Since 1947 partition, Kashmir has sparked three wars. Ceasefires often hold only months before new skirmishes. The 1960 Indus pact survived multiple conflicts, making its suspension especially alarming.
Key Stakeholders & Perspectives
Indian officials blame cross-border militancy; Pakistan cites civilian casualties from Indian strikes. The U.S. and U.K. seek regional stability for global supply-chain security. Kashmiris remain caught in the middle, craving lasting peace.
Analysis & Implications
A failed ceasefire could derail South-Asia’s economic recovery and imperil China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects. Water disputes over the Indus could inflame food-security risks for 300 m people.
Looking Ahead
Talks continue in Geneva next week, with proposals for joint water-monitoring teams and hotline revivals. Analysts see a narrow window—monsoon floods could compound tensions if disagreements linger.
Our Experts' Perspectives
- Conflict-resolution scholars say confidence-building must start with transparent water data sharing.
- Geopolitical strategists warn cyber-attacks on dams or grids could trigger rapid escalation.
- Human-rights monitors urge both sides to allow more international media access to Kashmir.